/ IOT TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF NON-TERRESTRIAL NETWORKS
By Carolyn O'Connor and Michael Green, Avnet Americas Defense & Aerospace business
What happens when cellular and satellite networks converge?
Precision agriculture, where sensors relay information about herd health to space and back to the farmer. Forest protection, where smoke-sniffing sensors cast warnings to low-Earth orbit then to firefighters. Military operations, where airborne systems provide broadband communications and intelligence to mobile forces on the ground. And life-saving earthquake responders who carry working phones into remote areas where cellular links have been cut.
These are just a few use cases designers envision for the future of Non-Terrestrial Networks, or NTNs.
While not yet pushing the NTN-velope, OEMs and start-ups alike are paying close attention to a standards development that places cellular and satellite technologies on a path to convergence.
What are NTNs?
NTNs are communications networks that use satellite as well as other airborne platforms like drones. What’s emerging in this space now is due to the 3GPP Release 17 NTN standard, which envisions satellite IoT connectivity between cellular and satellite via constellations in low-earth orbit. (3GPP stands for the 3rd Generation Partnership Project, which brings together seven telecom standards development organizations.) Satellite IoT connectivity via NTNs will lower costs and extend the reach of wireless communications, enabling new use cases described above.
“With the exponential growth of connected devices leading to unprecedented traffic volumes, the traditional view of satellite and terrestrial networks as separate ecosystems … is gradually diminishing.” That statement from a blog posting by u-blox, a global positioning and wireless communications provider, effectively sums up the opportunity.
IoT connectivity from space
Satellites complement IoT connectivity already available via terrestrial cellular networks by greatly expanding the coverage of Earth’s surface. Today, about 10% of Earth is connected. With expansion enabled by NTNs, skyrocketing growth is expected in devices to serve applications in agriculture, asset tracking, maritime and intermodal transportation, oil and gas exploration, utilities, construction, defense and many other markets.
The NTN IoT connectivity market is attracting established and new players alike.
WILL SATELLITE AND TERRESTRIAL NETWORKS MERGE?
3GPP’s standardization of NTN with cellular technology places both on a path for technical convergence.
Driving all of this is the dynamic growth of connected devices, especially in the IoT realm. Associated data demand is driving innovation that will integrate the two ecosystems. So the traditional approach–a line between satellite and terrestrial–is gradually blurring.
Satellite communications today largely rely on networks in three orbits: low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO) or geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). LEO networks are expected to present the most potential because that’s where internet and communications services operate. SpaceX’s Starlink is one example.
LEO satellites complete about 12 Earth orbits a day below an altitude of about 2,000 km. Because these networks are closer to Earth than the other two, they operate in “constellations,” or groups of satellites working together to provide continuous coverage of large areas.
How it works
Despite each network type’s differences, the associated ground infrastructure is similar. An IoT device can send sensor data to the satellite and receive control commands from the satellite. Satellite dishes on Earth sync up with terrestrial networks to deliver IoT data to a data center, and from there to an endpoint where users access the information. The choice of the satellite type depends on how its orbital position affects the effectiveness of the solution.
3GPP & NTNs
Cellular and satellite networks have operated side by side for decades. What is different now? It comes down to one word: Standardization.
3GPP, the standards-setting body for cellular communications, adapted 5G specifications for satellite-based connectivity in Release 17 NTN.
“The integration of non-terrestrial elements into wireless cellular networks with 3GPP standards will help unlock unprecedented coverage and open up the possibility of addressing new use cases,” said Chris Pearson, president, 5G Americas, in a recent briefing paper that forecasts a future where NTN and 5G evolve together.
“For over 20 years, the dream of worldwide seamless wireless connectivity on mobile devices has been a sort of Holy Grail for our industry. We are getting closer each day towards achieving this. While the physics of wireless may never allow us to achieve full 100% coverage everywhere, the industry key stakeholders are working hard to bring the world together under a wonderful umbrella of connectivity. Cheers to what the future will bring.”
– Chris Pearson, President, 5G Americas
USE CASES
3GPP outlines three categories or use cases for 5G NTN:
- Service continuity, when terrestrial networks alone are not sufficient, such as connecting airborne or maritime vessels
- Service ubiquity, for asset tracking, agricultural IoT connectivity, public safety needs
- Service scalability, for multicasting or broadcasting content
Market potential
A report from McKinsey revealed that the number of businesses that use IoT technologies grew from 13% in 2014 to 25% in 2019. However, this growth is expected to accelerate as more companies become aware of the benefits and understand the technology.
More recent data predicts that the number of IoT devices worldwide will almost double from 15.1 billion in 2020 to more than 29 billion in 2030. These IoT devices are being used in many different verticals, from electricity, gas and water, to retail, wholesale, transportation and storage.
IoT devices will fuel NTN growth, expected to climb from $4.2 billion in 2023 to $23.5 billion by 2028, according to Markets & Markets research.
Market predictions
Analysts have a lot to say about the opportunity. Here’s a sampling.
- ABI Research predicts that there will be $124.6 billion worth of annual service revenues from satellites by 2030 and that the specific NTN-Mobile segment “has the potential to reach a market value of around $18 billion with up to 200 million connections by 2031.”
- Market analysis firm Lucintel released a report in January 2024 saying that the future of the market “looks promising” with opportunities anticipated in the maritime, aerospace, defense, government and mining markets. The firm predicts that the 5G NTN market will reach $27.7 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 33% from 2024 to 2030.
- Global Market Insights lists the 5G NTN market at about $4.2 billion as of 2023 and expects a CAGR of 35% through 2032, with the market reaching nearly $80 billion at the end of the forecast period. 5G NTN will be “a crucial enabler for innovation and efficiency in the aerospace and defense domain,” the firm says. GMI also sees North America as the dominant region for the 5G NTN market.
- NSR, which focuses on the satellite market, expects NTN revenue for telcos to grow by $32.5 billion between 2022 and 2027. The figures come from forecasts produced as part of Analysys Mason’s Satellite Strategies for Telcos program.
LOOKING AHEAD
Satellite IoT introduces a new global connectivity era.
Because of Avnet’s global reach and access to these enabling technologies, OEMs have a partner that helps them place wise bets. A strong supply chain and close working relationships with leading device manufacturers mean Avnet is at the forefront of global markets. Our customers rely on us to help them capitalize on the opportunities markets like NTN present.
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*Includes launches through June 24, 2024. Source: Orbiting Now
Approximate number of active satellites, 2013-2022
Note: Data are from USC Satellite Database (May 1, 2022). USC maintains a database of publicly available data on active satellites, which is updated several times each year.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Carolyn O'Connor
Carolyn O'Connor is Director, Defense & Aerospace, for Avnet.
Michael Green
Michael Green is Avnet's Defense & Aerospace Technical Manager.